Will there be retaliatory consumption after the epidemic is over?

Will there be retaliatory consumption after the epidemic is over?
As one of the “troikas” driving the growth of the national economy, consumption has been the main “booster” for economic growth for six consecutive years.However, due to the impact of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic, consumption was hindered.Data released recently by the National Bureau of Statistics show that in the first two months of this year, the total retail sales of social consumer goods (hereinafter referred to as social zero overall) declined by 20 each year.5%.  Then, will there be retaliatory consumption after the epidemic is over? Sauna, Yewang interviewed Zhao Ping, director of the International Trade Research Department of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, Fu Yifu, a senior official of Suning Financial Research Institute, and Zhang Wei, chief macro measurer of Kunlun Health Asset Management.  Sauna Nightnet: Will there be retaliatory consumption after the epidemic is over?  Zhao Ping: After the epidemic, consumption will rebound, but it will not reach the level of retaliatory consumption.  The spread of the epidemic worldwide has led to a global economic recession that will inevitably have some impact on the Chinese economy.Although enterprises are currently resuming production in an orderly manner, if sales and profits before this year are to reach the level of last year, they will face huge challenges.In this case, the consumer’s income expectation will have an impact, and the long-term impact of the epidemic will release its consumer desire.Therefore, in the short term, consumers may release to a certain extent their suppressed appetite during the epidemic. At that time, the scale of consumption and the frequency of consumption will rebound, but it will soon return to a level that matches the expected income of consumers.Growth has entered a normal growth track.  Fu Yifu: The SARS epidemic in 2003 ended, and social consumption ushered in a significant rebound. This just shows that the epidemic can make people’s needs disappear out of thin air, but only delayed.After the epidemic, many people still have intentions to consume, especially in the areas of catering, tourism, etc., which suffered a relatively large rebound.Consumption such as cultural performances will also pick up after the epidemic is over.  However, this year’s tourism may not be back on track until the 11th Golden Week.Because even if the country declares the end of the epidemic, people may not go out with confidence at half past one. “Eleventh” is a relatively neutral time.  Taken together, people do have some demand that is delayed, and everyone’s economic strength is stronger, living standards and income levels are better than before, so consumption can quickly return to the right track.  Zhang Wei: The possibility of retaliatory consumption after the end of the epidemic is not ruled out.However, not all consumer products will usher in a strong rebound after the epidemic.After all, after a long period of self-protection, people’s awareness of protection will not suddenly disappear, and their vigilance for the “incubation period” will be appropriately retained.Therefore, I am afraid that the consumption of certain movie theaters in closed places will not usher in a retaliatory rebound in a short time.Expectations for the consumption of seasonal clothing and gourmet food are expected to be greatly improved.  Sauna, Ye Wang, Pan Yichun, editor Wang Yu, Sun Yong proofreading Chen Diyan